The canonical data for the “the 10 just wants to put on a show” Camicia case says the expected # of cards is 13 and # of tricks is 1.
But I play the game out like this:
| round | player | penalty | pile | A | B | cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | - | - | ∅ | 2 A 7 8 Q 10 | 3 4 5 6 K 9 J | |
| 1 | A | - | 2 | A 7 8 Q 10 | 3 4 5 6 K 9 J | 1 |
| 1 | B | - | 2 3 | A 7 8 Q 10 | 4 5 6 K 9 J | 2 |
| 1 | A | - | 2 3 A | 7 8 Q 10 | 4 5 6 K 9 J | 3 |
| 1 | B | 1/4 | 2 3 A 4 | 7 8 Q 10 | 5 6 K 9 J | 4 |
| 1 | B | 2/4 | 2 3 A 4 5 | 7 8 Q 10 | 6 K 9 J | 5 |
| 1 | B | 3/4 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 | 7 8 Q 10 | K 9 J | 6 |
| 1 | B | 4/4 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K | 7 8 Q 10 | 9 J | 7 |
| 1 | A | 1/3 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 | 8 Q 10 | 9 J | 8 |
| 1 | A | 2/3 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 | Q 10 | 9 J | 9 |
| 1 | A | 3/3 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 Q | 10 | 9 J | 10 |
| 1 | B | 1/2 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 Q 9 | 10 | J | 11 |
| 1 | B | 2/2 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 Q 9 J | 10 | ∅ | 12 |
| 1 | A | 1/1 | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 Q 9 J 10 | ∅ | ∅ | 13 |
A paid the payment, B was the last to play a penalty card => B collects trick 1, and B starts the next round.
| round | player | penalty | pile | A | B | cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | - | - | ∅ | ∅ | 2 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 Q 9 J 10 | 13 |
| 2 | B | - | 2 | ∅ | 3 A 4 5 6 K 7 8 Q 9 J 10 | 14 |
A cannot play => B collects trick 2, and the game is over
| cards | tricks | |
|---|---|---|
| expected | 13 | 1 |
| actual | 14 | 2 |
What wrong assumption have I made?